Humanity is at a crucial time for the future of the planet because of the excessive use of fossil fuels, which has led to severe climate change.
To limit rising temperatures to +2°C, we need to limit CO2 emissions, with a “residual budget” estimated between 1500-2000Gtons*.
This is according to a paper published in the International Science Council and also shared for the first time by the World Climate Research Program (WCRP).
Sommario
Mobility of the future, what will it look like?
The car company BMW asked 100 experts, including researchers, activists, managers and consultants, and the top three trends are: sharing, electric mobility and autonomous driving.
Let’s explore the potential and specifics of these trends to see where we stand.
Mobility: the three megatrends to reduce emissions
Mobility, which is responsible for about a quarter of greenhouse gas emissions, is addressing this challenge through three main “megatrends”: the shift to electric vehicles, the development of “Mobility As A Service” (MAAS) models, and autonomous vehicle technology.
Autonomous vehicle technology could be the catalyst for the transition to new mobility models, making car-sharing more accessible and affordable. This technology can also reduce range and charging time issues, facilitating optimal management of public fleets.
Currently, autonomous car technology is still under development, with Level 2 vehicles available on the market and Level 3 vehicles under development. It is predicted that it will take another 10 to 15 years to see vehicles with widespread levels of range 4 or 5.
This revolutionary change will lead to the predominance of public and shared “robo-taxis,” with a small number of private “emotional” vehicles.
This transition will involve significant changes in the automotive industry, with the entry of new players and an increased focus on ICT technologies.
Mobility and sustainability: Italy leading role
A promising sign of these advances was the first “autonomous motorsport” competition at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas in 2022, in which international teams challenged autonomous cars at high speeds. A scenario in which Italy is playing a leading role.
Here, nine identical Indy Lights-type cars equipped with nine different “artificial intelligence drivers,” “developed by as many international research groups, competed in the first head-to-head, fully autonomous, ultra-high-speed competition event (nearly 280 km/hr was reached in the final race).” (From www.stradeeautostrade.it)
The “PoliMOVE” team of the
Politecnico di Milano
was the winner, highlighting Italy’s expertise and ability to lead this technological revolution.
The Team also set a new world speed record for a fully autonomous vehicle on the Space Shuttle runway at the Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, USA.
Less private cars, more sustainable transportation
By 2030, sustainable mobility will become predominant in major global cities, as highlighted by Kantar’s“Mobility Future” study presented at the UN-Habitat World Urban Forum.
Private cars will account for 10 percent fewer trips, with the reduction offset by increased use of public transportation, bicycles, and walking.
Milan ranks sixth in Kantar’s* “transforming city index,” which assesses transformations in mobility habits. By 2030, sustainable modes of transportation will account for 49 percent of total travel, while car use will drop to 46 percent.
Cycling will show the fastest growth, with a projected increase of 18 percent, followed by walking (+15 percent) and public transportation (+6 percent). This transformation is supported by comprehensive projects, such as the extension of bike lanes and the implementation of sharing systems.
According to Kantar, some 36.7 million citizens in 31 cities will change their transportation habits over the next 10 years, with Manchester, Moscow and São Paulo experiencing the most significant changes.
The car sharing market
A study published in Allied market research, highlights that the global car sharing market was worth $2.9 billion in 2022, with a forecast to reach $17.8 billion by 2032 and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.2 percent from 2023 to 2032.
The study covers several regions, such as North America, LAMEA (Latin America, Middle East and Africa), Europe and Asia-Pacific, providing detailed analyses for each in terms of value ($million) for the period 2023-2032.
The market is highly fragmented with several companies such as Getaround, Enterprise Holdings, Avis Budget Group and others implementing product launch strategies, expansions and agreements to improve their position.
Car sharing offers a flexible and convenient solution for those who need a vehicle for short periods, avoiding the costs and problems associated with car ownership, such as parking and traffic congestion.
In addition, the market is segmented by vehicle type, application, model, area and region, with electric and sustainable vehicles representing significant growth opportunities.
Challenges related to insurance and inadequate infrastructure development are seen as potential barriers to growth, while partnerships with public transportation providers can further enhance the market.
Major companies in the industry are adopting strategies such as acquisitions, deals, and product launches to strengthen their market position. In addition, collaboration with Uber and initiatives such as Hertz Electrifies highlight the importance of the transition to electric and sustainable vehicles.
Finally, during an economic recession, car sharing can become a more attractive alternative to buying a car, increasing demand for car-sharing services, especially in urban areas.
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References:
Source cover img: agendadigital.eu/smart-city/auto-driving-autonomous-a-new-era-for-public-mobility-and-for-environment/
https://council.science/it/current/blog/emerging-climate-risks-and-what-will-it-take-to-limit-global-warming-to-2-0c/
https://www.bmw.com/it/innovation/mobilita-del-futuro.html/1000
*https://www.agendadigitale.eu/smart-city/auto-a-guida-autonoma-una-nuova-era-per-la-mobilita-pubblica-e-per-lambiente/
*https://www.kantar.com/it/company-news/il-trasporto-sostenibile-superera-quello-via-auto-entro-il-2030
https://www.alliedmarketresearch.com/car-sharing-market-A07125
